|
INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ May 19 2015
Charts and gold comments follow news headlines.
News of the Day
Housing Starts Surge to Highest Since Nov 2007, Permits At 7 Year Highs
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015 -
Following two ugly months of dramatically missed expectations, Housing Starts exploded to 'recovery' highs (highest since Nov 2007) jumping 20.2% MoM to 1.135million (against 1.015 exp.). This is the 2nd biggest MoM jump in history. Both single-family (3rd biggest MoM surge since the crisis peak) and multi-family starts surged. Permits also surged in April (jumping 10.1% MoM - the most since 2012) to 1.143 million (well above expectations) and the highest since June 2008. and Well these huge mal-investment spikes make perfect sense in light of the collapse in lumber prices (and thus demand).
(NOTE – You can be sure some number was used to make the above look good – Editor GoldTrends)
Commodity Carnage
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015
The surge in the US Dollar and "good" housing data has created carnage in commodities. Silver, crude, copper, and gold are all getting hammered this morning as the S&P is unchanged as moar Q€ was trumped by hawkish "good" data.
ECB Blames Leak To Hedge Funds On "Internal Procedural Error"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015
Shortly after 6pm London time yesterday, The ECB's Benoit Coeure told a non-public audience of hedge funds in London that "the central bank would moderately front-load its purchases in its quantitative easing program because of the seasonal lack of market liquidity in the summer." The reaction was a 50 pips drop in EURUSD... but this was inside information was not released to the trading public until around 8am London time - and resulted in a 150 pip plunge. In other words, a select private group of head funds in London were leaked ECB front-loading news 14 hours before The ECB deemed it 'correct' to publicly release the comments... due to what The ECB calls "an internal procedure error."
The European Central Planning Bank Unhappy With Analysts' Euro Forecasts
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015
Things are getting more surreal by the moment. First the ECB leaks material, market moving information to hedge funds 12 hours before disclosing it to the entire world, and now the central bank that has taken central planning to the next level, is revealing its displeasure with how the quote unquote "market" has responded to the Euro. Via BBG:
PRAET: SOME ANALYST FORECASTS ON THE EURO'S DEPRECIATION HAD GONE BEYOND WHAT ECB EXPECTED: WSJ
Oddly no comment if the ECB's stealthy selling of Bunds to open up capacity for 15 more months of purchases also moved the massively illiquid market too far in the opposite direction.
This Is Central Planning: A "World Of Activist Central Banks" Who "Manage Price Levels In Markets"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2015
The bad news is that we are investing in a world where Graham and Dodd’s “Security Analysis” has become a quaint relic of simpler times, when the nuts and bolts of a company’s fundamental were meant to motivate how analysts viewed its prospects.
Our thanks to www.zerohedge.com for the above news headlines.
Gold
We discussed last night on the website a potential high for the week at 1234-1244 and the high on Monday was 1233. We also discussed to be very careful even though gold had broken above 1225 that seasonal factors on average has gold peaking right around this time in May.
Gold Chart
Gold got within a dollar or our target for the week of 1234-1244 on Monday. Since then we have dropped back to the 2nd tier support level of 1198-1205 with a 1205 low so far today. Support is now the 1193-1198 and 1172-1182.
Cycles
As discussed the next cycle turn was due yesterday (May 18th – plus or minus 72 hours) and it looks as though we may have gotten the cycle high. If so then prices should move lower into the beginning of June.
Silver
Silver is down a dollar from the Monday high at its lows today and hit a key short term support of 1687 in what looks like a technical selloff. The rebound since then should encounter resistance at 1725 on Wednesday and then We’ll see. Additional support is at 1605-1609 and 1650-1660.
 
| 
