To answer the question “what drives the prices of gold” we have to
determine the nature of gold. Its complexity makes it difficult to
understand, even for Ben Bernanke, the former chairman of the U.S. central
bank.
Is gold a commodity? It is, from the physicochemical point of view, a
precious metal, which is mined just like any other commodity. In that
context, it is therefore not a security, but a tangible, hard or real asset.
However, it is also a unique commodity behaving more like a monetary
asset. From the investment point of view, the inverse relationship
of gold with the U.S. dollar is practically the solely feature it has in
common with other commodities. The yellow metal is very weakly correlated
with other commodities (except silver), and according to the
World Gold Council, it “is less exposed to swings in business cycles,
typically exhibits lower volatility, and tends to be significantly more
robust at times of financial duress” than other commodities. Moreover, gold
is less used in industry; hence it is also less exposed to the business cycle,
while its production is geographically
diversified. Its sources of demand are more diverse, which makes
gold less volatile and less exposed to specific risks than other
commodities. And because gold is one of the densest elements, it
is much easier to store than other commodities.
What else differentiates gold from other commodities? The yellow metal is
almost indestructible – practically all gold that has ever been mined still
exists in some form. Thus, the ratio of stocks to annual flows is much larger
for gold than for other commodities (see the chart 1).
Chart 1: Approximate stock-to-flow ratios for gold (yellow), silver
(blue), wheat (green) and crude oil (black)
Thanks to this feature, gold is much less prone to production
shocks as the price of gold does not depend so much on current production.
Any shortages can be relatively quickly fulfilled by recycled gold from the
aboveground stocks. Contrarily, any positive supply shocks (sudden increase
in mining output) affect the gold prices in a limited way, because the annual
mining production is only a tiny fraction of the total gold holdings. Hence, the
gold price is mainly driven by demand and changes in reserves rather than by
the supply from the gold mines.
The unique features of gold (except the above, the yellow metal is
durable, easily recognizable, storable, portable, divisible and easily
standardized) explain why this precious metal has been used as money for
thousands of years, until 1971. This is, incidentally, another distinct
feature of gold compared to other commodities (except silver). Its historical
relevance as a monetary asset explains why gold still behaves like a
currency, despite the fact that the gold
standard ended more than forty years ago. Actually, the gold market
is very large and liquid compared not only to other commodities, but also
to currency
or debt markets. And gold – again unlike other commodities – is still held by
central banks and governments as a reserve asset (in fact, it is after the
U.S. dollar and euro the third largest reserve
asset in the world, according to the
World Gold Council).
To complicate matter even worse, gold differs not only from other
commodities, but also from other currencies. The yellow metal is a
tangible asset, so it cannot be printed like fiat currencies. Thanks to its
relatively inelastic supply, gold preserves its purchasing
power, thus serving as a hedge
against governments’ madness and as a safe haven during financial turmoil.
In that sense it is not a currency, since we cannot buy goods and services
with gold coins or bars, but is rather an anti-fiat currency, bought
when the trust in central banks and governments diminishes.
Ironically, those central banks buy and hold gold themselves.
In other words, gold does not depend on any single government or
central bank, hence its price is not influenced by political decisions or the
solvency of any institution. Thus, gold is a global monetary
asset, which reflects global developments and which is heavily traded on the
spot market (unlike commodities traded mostly on the futures
market, but similarly to currencies).
Gold is neither commodity nor currency. It combines the features
of both making it commodity money, i.e. a commodity which historically has
been chosen as money and still remains a global monetary asset. No arbitrary
political actions can increase its supply, and it has no counterparty risk
(this is why it has no yield), hence it is still traded like currency or
insurance against fiat currencies and market instability inherently connected
to paper
money.
Would you like to understand the nature of gold? We focus on the
fundamental analysis in our monthly Market Overview reports; however, we
provide also Gold &
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Arkadiusz Sieron
Sunshine Profits‘ Gold News
Monitor and Market Overview Editor
Gold News Monitor
Gold Trading Alerts
Gold Market Overview
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