|
=====
How much gold has the world produced in all of human
history?
Gold.org Estimates 175,000 tonnes. A tonne is 32,151 troy
ounces. Or 5.6 billion ounces of gold.
LINK: FACTS ABOUT GOLD
At the end of 2014, there were 183,600 tonnes of stocks
in existence above ground.
LINK: GOLD SUPPLY
"The best estimate at the end of 2011 is that arond
165,000 metric tones have been mined in all of human history."
LINK:
WORLD'S GOLD
I decided to check what gold.org reported in the past. In
2004, I reported that they reported it was 145,000 tonnes.
LINK: SILVER STOCK REPORT #32
Assuming annual production of 2500 tonnes per year over
the last 12 years, adds 30,000 to the total, taking 145,000 to 175,000. I see
relative consistency here, even as other estimates range from 165,000 to
183,000 tonnes.
Next, a few people posted about Yamashita's gold in the
comments in my last newslettter. And this topic of how much gold is there
really in the world was discussed here in a great article:
Setting The Record Straight On The Massive Gold Supply
Conspiracy
by SRSrocco on February 8, 2016
LINK: THE MASSIVE GOLD SUPPLY CONSPIRACY
SRSrocco does not believe reports of up to 2 million
tonnes of gold, and neither do I.
Bix reponds to this article, here:
SRSrocco Fumbles Badly on His "Bix Weir Hit Piece"
LINK: SRSROCCO FUMBLES BADLY
Here's my opinion:
First, I agree nobody can know with exact certainty how
much gold exists. The very nature of gold is that it is mostly held totally
privately. And that's one of the main features, benefits, and entire beauty
of gold. It is anonymous wealth. Whenever you hear the phrase, "What
have you got to hide?" as if hiding things is a criminal activity, you
know the questioner himself is a thief or ignoramus or totalitarian.
But this does not mean we can estimate things with
surprising accuracy. I think we can.
For example, in another field, they have estimated the
number of atoms in the universe to be about 10 to the 80th power. Maybe a
range between 10 to the 79, or 10 to the 81st power. That's within a factor
of 100, but given the number of zeros there, that's very interesting. And
then there is the "problem" of dark matter, because they feel that
the amount of matter should be about five to ten times higher than what they
can observe, due to gravity and things being "off". LINK: WIKI:
DARK MATTER
So. When I first encountered this issue of "black
gold" or "unaccounted" WWII gold, back in 2004, it was an
interesting topic. LINK: SILVER STOCK REPORT #32 I called
it a "bombshell". And I didn't have the discernment, wisdom, or
experience to be able to form a clear opinion. So, I just reported it.
Today, I view it as unjustified disinformation, and this
was one of my initial feelings, but now I have more reasons for that.
First of all, the theory was that in the pre WWII era,
China was able to mine, and Japan was able to steal, about 200,000 to 500,000
tonnes, which is over from 1 to 2.5 times what has been mined in the modern
era of open pit mining. It's kind of silly.
It would be like someone reporting, "I travelled the
world, and I discovered a secret massive city, deep in Mongolia that nobody
knows about that had 70 billion people living there, ten times what is known
in the rest of the world." See? It's just preposterous.
The other preposterous notions associated with this
"massive gold exists conspiracy" are that it was mostly spent. The
claims made go from preposterous to super preposterous, and I will quote two
paragraphs from one of the key persons behind this claim at:
LINK: PEGGY SEAGRAVE
"The Diamond Cartel was able to amass huge
quantities of stones, and yet keep prices artificially high by limiting to a
trickle the number of diamonds reaching the market, maintaining the
impression of extraordinary rarity. In a similar way, the black gold cartel
could hold many thousands of metric tons of gold bullion -- far more than the
official gold supply -- keeping gold prices artificially high while discreetly
using derivatives of this gold as a clandestine slush fund."
"If the recovery of this huge mass of plundered gold
was known only to a trusted few, those countries and individuals that had
been robbed by the Nazis, the Fascists, or the Japanese, would not sue to
recover it. Also, the argument was made that the existence of so much black
gold, if it became public knowledge, would cause the fixed price of $35 an
ounce to collapse."
Nope. No. Certainly not.
First, the truth is that if there was a large source of
black gold, 10 times larger than all the gold mined in the world up to that
point, from the pre WWII era, before modern open pit mining, which alone,
makes no sense...
Then, second, it would have been long exhausted before
1971, and spent on all the things this one author claims it was already used
for.
Second, the run up in the price of gold from $35 to $800,
from 1971 to 1980, shows that this black gold that could have been used to
cap the gold price, was long spent, and no longer available to cap the price.
Third, the run up in the gold price from 2000, from
$250/oz., to $1950/oz., by 2011, again shows that this "hidden"
gold, that might have been used to cap the gold price, is, again, long, long,
long gone!
The main supposition, and timing, of the release of these
"gold rumors" of massive pre WWII era gold, came out around 2003,
and should have long since been thoroughly discredited, if only by the
subsequent gold price rise, in my opinion.
Fourth, gold prices are not kept artificially high like
the diamond markets. Instead, they are kept artificially low, to prop up the
paper dollar. Anyone with half a knowledge of gold can see that.
Fifth, world annual gold production, and world population
growth, are about the same. And the "ounce per person" ratio
remains very constant! This supports the numerical estimates of the offical
gold historical production of about 175,000 tonnes or 5.6 billion ounces.
Sixth, I have personally asked 4 major gold experts what
they thought of the claims of there being from 2 to 10 times as much gold in
the world as the official numbers, because of this "black gold,
off-market gold, from pre WWII". They all think it's preposterously
ridiculous, and silly, and if anything it's rumors or disinformation designed
to try to talk down the gold price, and not even really worth responding to.
Seventh, if there is that much gold, say, up to 2 million
tonnes, the implications are usually that it could be sold to depress the
price. But the other implication would be that it means gold will be far more
stable than we realize, because new mine production does not add just over 1%
to total historical gold supply, but rather 0.1%. Again, I'm sorry, that just
does not make any sense.
This is a great article, they use the smaller figure of
166,500 Tonnes.
All the Gold in the World - Visualized in Bullion Bars
LINK: ALL THE GOLD VISUALIZED
In my next newsletter, I intend to try to mention a few
things that I did over the years that were the least successful, and my
biggest mistakes, so that you (and myself) don't make them twice.
Please leave your comments on this article online at: silverstockreport.com/2016/how-much-gold.html
=====
Follow me on facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/jason.hommel
|
