“WE WERE WRONG”

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Published : January 11th, 2016
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Category : Crisis Watch

This just isn’t fair!  I mean, there are so much, dramatically escalating, exponentially expanding “horrible headlines” to discuss, I could literally tape a 30 minute Audioblog each day, and still not appropriately cover all the terrifying, wildly Precious Metals-bullish material.  Especially following a weekend, when in this case I have 48 hours of new material since my last article.

Like, for instance, the fact that one of Hillary Clinton’s “private server” emails proved what many have speculated on for years; i.e., that a principal catalyst – if not the principal catalyst of America’s 2011 invasion, and destruction, of Libya was to steal its $7 billion worth of gold.  Which, in my mind, was undoubtedly sold surreptitiously, to “kick the strong dollar can” a few months further.  And I cannot emphasize “a few months” more, given that global physical gold demand has been so strong, said $7 billion was likely hovered up by governments, Central banks, and large investors in short order – to NEVER again see the light of day.

Back to the “horrible headlines,” how about the now public fact that, in reality, only 11,000 actual “jobs” were created in December, compared to the 292,000 “seasonally adjusted” positions fabricated by the BLS.  Or North and South Korea on the brink of war?  Or Saudi Arabia and Iran?  Or this weekend’s massive anti-Moslem protests in Germany – which itself, is on the verge of political anarchy?  On that topic, I might add, suffice to say that Germany, no matter how much it’s “reformed” in recent decades, remains the world’s most hated nation – having started two World Wars; driven the European Union into the ground; and oh yeah, defrauded millions of auto buyers, via Volkswagen’s “Diesel-Gate” scandal.  Trust me, if the “glue and band-aids” holding Europe together falls apart – which Germany’s political leadership most certainly is – the European Union, Commission, and currency itself aren’t long for the Earth.

To that end, the Netherlands’ upcoming vote on the European-Ukrainian association treaty; or the UK’s inevitable “BrExit” vote; Catalonia’s expanding secession movement; a Greek “bailout” failure; or a related surge in anti-Euro sentiment in Portugal, Spain, Italy, or France – among others – could each single-handedly plunge Europe into chaos.  And with each passing day, as the global economy collapses further, Europe’s “migrancy” crisis will only worsen.  In turn, expanding the global “war on terrorism”; which, when all is said and done, may well bring about the type of “leaders” that made Germany infamous – like Donald Trump, for example.  Which is why, more than ever, the urgency to PROTECT yourself has never been stronger!

Still on this weekend’s news, miserable Chinese economic data, confirming four years of deflation, catalyzed yet another equity crash – with the Shanghai Exchange plunging 5.3% this morning, and Shenzhen 6.6%, amidst cratering commodities, currencies, and money market liquidity.  To that end, PBOC Yuan intervention has become as blatant as its “National Team’s” stock market intervention; the former, comically attempting to slow the devaluation they initiated; and the latter, despite having purchased $300 billion of stocks in the past year alone, failing as spectacularly as the Federal Reserve’s mythical economic “recovery.”  Which, by the way, I’ll return to momentarily.

As for commodity markets – EGAD!  As I write early Monday morning, crude oil is down to $32.50/bbl, whilst “Dr. Copper” – or as I deemed it two years ago, “Dr. Death” – is below $2.00/lb for the first time in seven years, enroute to breaching 2009’s spike bottom low of $1.40/lb; which, I might add, is the same price copper traded at 27 years ago!  Perfect timing, I might add, as hundreds of base metal miners are undertaking their year-end operational reviews and reserve/resource revisions as we speak.  Which, upon their conclusion in the coming weeks, will likely yield massive write-downs, mine closures, and capital expenditure reductions.

To that end, recall that in October 2014’s “Miles Franklin All-Star Silver Panel Webinar,” I espoused that global silver production could eventually plunge 25%-50%, given that nearly 60% of silver production is the byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mines.  Next, recall last month’s “horrible headline that stands out above the rest” – of how U.S. silver production plunged 20% year-over-year in September.  On that note, consider Steve St. Angelo’s article yesterday, describing how said trend continued in October, prompting him to forecast what is rapidly becoming “common knowledge”; i.e., “peak silver” (and gold) have decidedly arrived.  To that end, here’s what he wrote to me this weekend.  Which, I might add, will only add to the suspense of the upcoming “2016 Silver Update Webinar” I’ll be hosting on January 27th – featuring David Morgan and Chris Marchese of Silver-Investor.com, and Miles Franklin’s own Andy Schectman.

I believe I am updating my forecast on silver production going forward.  I was more conservative, and thus thought the decline would be slow and steady.  However I now believe we can experience a Seneca Cliff in global silver production.  So, in that vein, you may turn out to be correct.”

Which brings me to today’s principal topic, regarding three words we are about to hear increasingly often, from countless global political, economic, and financial “leaders” – i.e., “we were wrong.”  To the contrary, the Miles Franklin Blog can claim the polar opposite, having warned of everything from collapsing economies, commodities, and currencies; to surging money printing, Precious Metals demand, and political, geopolitical and social unrest.

To wit, even I was awed by San Francisco Fed President John Williams’ admission this weekend – mere days after ex-Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher admitted the Fed purposefully inflated a stock market bubble – that the Fed was “wrong” when it predicted a drop in oil prices would be a “big boon for the economy.”  This, from a man who last week, arrogantly patronizing listeners in a CNBC interview with media-propagandist-in-chief Steve Liesman, claimed the “U.S. economy is in good shape,” and “three to four rate hikes this year sounds about right!”

Better yet, after said “admission,” he went right back to his lying, nation-destroying ways, in espousing that – get this – “consumer spending has been growing faster than you would otherwise expect.”  Really?  I mean, you’d have had to have some mighty low expectations to consider the worst holiday spending season since the height of the 2008 financial crisis “better than expected.”  To that end, for the entirety of 2015, retail sales are negative, for gosh sake.  As are industrial production, corporate capital expenditures, factory orders, and durable goods orders – that is, if you exclude government military spending, which just had its largest one-month surge since…drum roll please…9/11!

My friends, if there was ever a damning statement of central planning failure, it is this one.  And trust me, many others are coming – from the end of the Fed’s now 14-month belief that falling oil and export prices are “transitory”; to its three-year-plus propaganda of economic “recovery”; to labor market “improvement”; or its comical belief that CPI inflation is destined to exceed the Fed’s 2% target in the “medium-term.”

Perhaps a negative 4Q GDP print will do the trick, in finally causing such words to translate to hyperinflationary actions.  Or perhaps a massive bankruptcy; or an accelerating market plunge; or a terrifying geopolitical event.  Or heck, a Cartel-busting Precious Metals surge!  But rest assured, where there’s smoke, there’s fire.  And when one after the other, Fed governors themselves, past and present – including “Maestro” Greenspan himself – are starting to “jump ship” and turn traitor on their colleagues, you know we’re closing in on not only the inevitable “Yellen Reversal” – when the Fed is forced to admit its failure – but the hyperinflationary policy responses that every Central bank in history have undertaken amidst the final, hyperinflationary phase of their respective fiat currency Ponzi schemes.  Which is why, more than ever, the urgency to PROTECT YOURSELF has never been stronger!

 

Data and Statistics for these countries : France | Germany | Iran | Italy | Netherlands | Portugal | Saudi Arabia | South Korea | Spain | All
Gold and Silver Prices for these countries : France | Germany | Iran | Italy | Netherlands | Portugal | Saudi Arabia | South Korea | Spain | All
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Andrew Hoffman was a buy-side and sell-side analyst in the United States (including six years as an II-ranked oilfield service analyst at Salomon Smith Barney), but since 2002 his focus has been entirely in the metals markets, principally gold and silver. He recently worked as a consultant to junior mining companies, head of Corporate Development, and VP of Investor Relations for different mining ventures, and is now the Director of Marketing for Miles Franklin, a U.S.-based bullion dealer.
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