Looking
back -
Two surprise transformations at the end of 2014
A year of many
surprises, 2014 ended with a couple surprise personal transformations largely
passed over by the mainstream media.
– Berkshire
Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett startled recipients of his annual
shareholder letter by revealing an instruction to the trustee for his wife's
estate that 10% of her inheritance should be invested in government bonds and
the other 90% in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund.
– Similarly former
Fed chairman shocked the financial world by announcing that his years at the
Federal Reserve cemented his long-held view of gold as an important asset
allocation for the times given governments' (note the plural) predilection to
print money.
Buffett points to
saving fees and the inability of fund managers to beat the indices as the
chief reasons for his decision, but one wonders if there might be more to it
than that. Since the 2008 meltdown and the subsequent bailouts things have
changed considerably on Wall Street and
at the Federal Reserve. Interest Rate Observer's James Grant attempted to
define the complicated change in the stock market's monetary underpinnings in
a speech this past November before the Cato Institute.
"My
generation," he said, "gave former tenured economics professors
discretionary authority to fabricate money and to fix interest rates. We put
the cart of asset prices before the horse of enterprise. We entertained the
fantasy that high asset prices made for prosperity, rather than the other way
around. We actually worked to foster inflation, which we called 'price
stability' (this was on the eve of the hyperinflation of 2017). We seem to
have miscalculated."
Stocks in this
scenario become fungible, an asset class driven as much by monetary policy as
it is a solid track record or growing market share. In the end, Buffett is
not just saving fees by putting his wife's inheritance in index funds, he is
also betting, like it or not, on the Federal Reserve's ability to keep stocks
as an asset class headed in a northerly direction. Not everyone harbors the
same high degree of confidence in the Fed's grand monetary experiment that
Buffett does.
Alan Greenspan, for
one, sees it as fraught with danger as does another former Fed chairman, Paul
Volcker. Late last year, Greenspan likened the Fed's over-blown balance sheet
to "a tinder box that has not been lit," characterized the job of
Fed chairman as one subject to the heavy dictate of the federal government,
and recommended gold ownership as a hedge for private investors.
"Gold," he said, "is a good place to put money these days
given its value as a currency outside of the policies conducted by
governments." Stocks, on the other hand, have taken a position at the
opposite end of the investment spectrum – an asset class that has become
overly reliant on the policies conducted by government.
Looking
ahead
- Much food for thought on gold and the economy for 2015
At the start of
2015, armchair economist-gold owners like Mr. Spot -- pictured below in his
study -- remain content, confident and assured this New Year's Eve. He does
not own gold simply to make profit. He owns it to protect the wealth he has
already garnered. He keeps in mind the historical cycle described by
Alexander Tyler, the 18th century historian and jurist:
"A democracy
cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the
voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the public treasury.
From that moment on the majority always votes for the candidates promising
the most money from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy
always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship. The
average age of the world's great civilizations has been two hundred years.
These nations have progressed through the following sequence: from bondage to
spiritual faith, from spiritual faith to great courage, from courage to
liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from
selfishness to complacency from complacency to apathy, from apathy to
dependency, from dependency back to bondage."
He judges that we
are now somewhere between the "selfishness" and
"dependency" stages of Tyler's cycle, hopes that things will turn
around, but keeps his diversification intact just in case it does not. The
politicians, he observes, have not acted well this past year. Washington, he
says, seems to be confused and lacking direction and more interested, as
Tyler suggests, in getting re-elected than making responsible decisions about
the future of the country.
He points to Neil
Howe's conclusion that the Fourth Turning started with the 2008 financial
meltdown and that we are likely to be in a transition period for some time to
come. He takes Howe's observation to heart: "You are not just into it
and out of it immediately. . .It is a season you have to move through before
you are born again, so to speak, as a society, and regain institutional
confidence. You have go through the crucible to get there."
(Editor's Note:
Those of you who have followed my writings over
the years know that I consider “The Fourth Turning” (1997) by William Strauss
and Neil Howe one of the most important books published over the past two
decades. In that book, eleven years before the 2008 meltdown, the authors
made one of the most stunning calls of all-time: “The next Fourth Turning,”
they predicted, “is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway
through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze
a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political
and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with
severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and
empire.”)
Ever the amateur
historian, Mr. Spot takes special note of the drain of Western gold to the
East through the London-Zurich-Hong Kong-Shanghai pipeline. He is aware that
a drain of gold from declining cultures to rising cultures usually
accompanies the end phases of Tyler's cycle. Gold, he recalls, fled Rome just
before the empire collapsed in the third century A.D. and the British Empire
began to lose gold following World War I. Though he does not believe the end
is nigh, he does believe that gold movements on this scale proceed for good
reason. Many years ago, he tacked a sign on the bulletin board above his
desk. It reads: "He who owns the gold makes the rules."
Like just about
everyone else, he enjoys the end of year prediction festivities but he points
out that almost all forecasting is necessarily based on trends already in
motion. What foreasting inevitably fails to embrace is the surprise event, or
even the surprise policy, launched by one government/central bank or another.
He has structured his portfolio as a philosopher/investor not as a trend
chaser. At a dinner party recently he caused some discomfort among an erudite
group of analysts by asking how many predicted Russia's invasion of Crimea,
the crash in oil prices or the rise of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.
We provided Mr.
Spot with an advance copy of The
Gold Owner's Guide to 2015. In appreciation he sent over the
IPhone snapshot posted above and an encouraging note:
"I
wholeheartedly approve! The 2015 Guide is even better than last year's."
And so, dear
reader, we send you along to our annual catalog of opinion and predictions
posted below with our own fondest wishes for a very happy and prosperous
2015.
We shall start with
recent predictions posted by the big global trading banks -- the bulls and
bears of gold finance.
Institutional
Bears
• Citibank takes
its typically conservative approach calling for $1220 gold and $16.50 silver
in 2015. It says the "downside moves will be limited" with investor
attitudes "turning the corner." The bank does not elaborate on what
corner gold will turn except to say that a "bottom might be near."
• "I would say
right we are now." ($1200 range) - Andy Montano, Scotiabank
• "Gold prices
we see as stabilized at current levels. We now expect a $1,100-$1,300/oz
trading range, we reduce our gold price forecast for 2015 to $1,225/oz and
our long term price from $1,250/oz from $1,300/oz." - Credit Suisse's
Global Metals & Mining Team
• Commerzbank
analysts put gold at an average price of $1200 per ounce in 2015.
• Goldman Sachs is
sticking with its forecast of $1050 by December, 2015
• France's SocGen
says gold will trade in the $1025 range.
• Bank of America
Merrill Lynch predicts gold will drop to $1100 per ounce, but warns that
deflationary concerns in Europe could trigger another global debt crisis.
Institutional
Bulls
• "Increased
physical buying, especially in India and China, should support prices as
eager consumers are likely to further take advantage of lower prices." –
JP Morgan
• "In terms of
gold price expectations, it appears that the repair of technical picture is
now behind us and that a stable bottom has formed. The next 12 month price
target is the USD 1,500 level. Longer term, the author expects a parabolic
trend acceleration, with a long-term target of USD 2,300 by the end of the
cycle." -– Ron Stoferle, Incrementum Lichtenstein
• "If the weak
oil prices are more related to slow demand — and I think there's certainly
some justification for that view – then people might be looking at gold as a
safe-haven and that might actually be quite positive for gold." – Mitsui
Precious Metals
•
"Geopolitical unrest in Middle East, especially with drop in oil price,
could bring a completely new wave of debt default for banks, and companies
and this will put the balance sheets of the impacted countries in jeopardy,
because no one has tested this in their stress test, so the results of this
are unknown [which would be a] major bull event for gold." – Avatrade
• Australia &
New Zealand Banking group predicts gold prices will recover next year as
demand in China and India improves. It forecasts an advance for gold even as
the Federal Reserve raises interest rates saying it will climb to $1,280 an
ounce by the end of 2015 and $1420 by the end of 2016.
Onward . . .
Marcus
Grubb, the World Gold Council's Managing Director, says that analyzing the
past 12 downturns in the gold price since 1970 – that is where the price
drops more than 20% – the WGC found that within 35 months of the price trough
gold rebounded 38% to 40%."We may be in the trough now," he said.
"Basically you could see $1,500 gold within that time frame."
Looking beyond, gold's average rise over 50-60 months from a trough was 90%,
Grubb said. "Well that would put you at $2,000." - MineWeb.com
*
* * * *
Rob McEwen,
controlling shareholder and chairman of McEwen Mining says "Two grand by
the end of 2015. Gold will
ultimately peak at $5000/oz." - MineWeb.com
* * * *
*
Gold Field's
Mineral Services says the physical market, which has been largely absent in
2014 so far, is "likely to experience a substantial resurgence in
demand. This is likely to help to put a floor in place and longer-term
forces, both in terms of physical fundamentals and economic and financial
price drivers. As such, from
2015 the research firm is predicting a return to a bull market for gold."
- Platts McGraw Hill Finance
*
* * * *
Matterhorn Asset
Management's Eric von Greyerz, "2015 will be a year of surprises. In
2015 we will see central banks panicking as they unveil major money printing
programs in a desperate attempt to halt the deflation. This is why money
printing will be back with a vengeance in 2015. This is also why gold and
silver will start a historic and massive rise in the coming year. . .The
whole LBMA and bullion bank Ponzi scheme will blow up at some point next year
because they will literally run out of physical gold. This will have a
massive effect as the price of gold will be released to the upside." - King World News
* * * *
*
"America's
Federal Reserve is headed down a familiar — and highly dangerous — path.
Steeped in denial of its past mistakes, the Fed is pursuing the same
incremental approach that helped set the stage for the financial crisis of
2008-2009. The consequences could be similarly catastrophic. . .Central
banking has lost its way. Trapped in a post-crisis quagmire of zero interest
rates and swollen balance sheets, the world's major central banks do not have
an effective strategy for regaining control over financial markets or the
real economies that they are supposed to manage. Policy levers — both
benchmark interest rates and central banks' balance sheets — remain at their
emergency settings, even though the emergency ended long ago." - Stephen
Roach / Project Syndicate
"If the Fed
sounds dovish after its first interest rate hike, the market would lose all
faith in the central banks' forecasting ability as gauged by the "Fed
dots". In this scenario, one can expect a rally in gold prices to $1400
per ounce." - Vatsal Srivastava, IANS, India Private Limited
*
* * * *
"As I
mentioned earlier, the gold is flowing East. Well, so goes the gold, so goes
the world's reserve currency status and power. This means the world currency
of the future will be controlled by the Chinese in the next year or two. This
also means you better own gold and silver ahead of this coming transition. .
.These two metals are going to go far higher than anyone can imagine as this
transition unfolds. So gold and silver will soar as the Chinese and SCO take
control of most of the world, and now is the time to buy while they are still
cheap. Sadly, this is all you can do as the West collapses is protect
yourself and your family." - Stephen Leeb / Complete Investor at King World News
* * * *
*
"Once the low
is clearly established, gold will have a green light to rise in a strong bull
market. This means 2019 will be the next likely time for a major peak. It
will be the 11 year mark from the 2008 lows, for the 4th time in 45 years.
This tells us that despite current volatility, with today's world in an
unprecedented condition, we'll likely see gold at super new record highs in
the years ahead." - Mary Anne and Pamela Aden at Gold Eagle
*
* * * *
"The first
rule of investing is capital preservation. The resilience of the gold price,
much like falling yields on UK gilts, is a canary in the mine of the global
economy, showing that investors think the anaemic recovery could rapidly
unravel without being propped up by money-printing. A balanced portfolio
should hold an allocation of about 5pc in assets such as gold. The future is
uncertain and gold is the most effective insurance against that." - The Telegraph/John Ficenec
*
* * * *
"China has for
the first time warned openly about the excessive strength of the Chinese
yuan, a sign that the country may be shifting its exchange rate policy as
deflation takes hold and currencies slide across Asia. Yi Gang, the deputy
governor of the People's Bank of China, said the yuan's rise had been
"very fast" over the past year as it surges in tandem with the US
dollar, making it the world's second strongest currency. . .The country has
quietly joined Asia's escalating currency wars, steering the yuan down by 2
percent against the dollar since early November. This looks increasingly like
a move to protect itself against Japan's dramatic devaluation and against
weakening currencies in Korea and other key Asian states." - The Telepgraph/Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Editor note: Devaluation of the yuan and
the potential for domestic inflation to rise is impetus for gold demand among
the Chinese people. As it is, Reuters reports China's imports from Hong Kong
on a steep rise and China gold expert Koos Jansen reports overall imports for
2014 at near 2000 metric tonnes. Demand for gold is driven in China by the
current low dollar price in conjunction with the prospect of a depreciating
yuan. Take a look at these soaring volumes! The depreciating yuan could be one of the big stories for
gold in 2015.
(Courtesy of Koos Jansen/BullionStar)
"Kaboom! Dow
18K" is the headline atop the Drudge Report. It links to a story on the
Bloomberg wire reporting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average "rallied
past 18,000 for the first time, after data showed the world's largest economy
grew at the fastest pace since 2003 last quarter.". . . What the story
failed to note is that the value of the Dow — that is, its worth in ounces of
gold — is nowhere near a record. This can be glimpsed in the charts that are
kept by pricedingold.com. The chart illuminates that even with the kurrent
kaboom, the current value of the Dow, at just under 450 grams of gold, may be
up from where it was at the start of the Obama administration, when it was
near 350 grams, but is still way down from its record of 1,400 grams part way
through 1999. The value of the Dow has certainly been trending upward in
recent months, the chart of pricededgold.com suggests. It ducked under 200
grams of gold at one point during the Great Recession. It is, however, nowhere
near a record. - The New
York Sun
Final Word
by
Michael J. Kosares
"A true cycle is self-generating. It cannot be
determined, short of catastrophe, by external events. War, depressions, inflation
may heighten or complete moods, but the cycle itself rolls on,
self-sufficient and autonomous. . .The roots of this cyclical
self-sufficiency lie deep in the natural life of humanity. There is a
cyclical pattern in organic nature – in the tides, in the seasons, in night
and day, in the systole and diastole of the human heart." - Arthur
Schlesinger, historian
With the Dow surging past 18,000 and calls for 25,000
ringing in the New Year, we thought it might be a good time to resurrect
Colin Seymour's timeless critique of Wall Street histrionics. Pompous Prognosticators
(aptly named) first appeared on these pages in the winter of 2001 just as the
Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a top at the 11,000 level and gold began its
bull market at the $300 per ounce level. Then, as now, only a handful cared
to entertain the notion that the Dow might be overvalued or that gold might
be undervalued. Most believed that the Federal Reserve and Wall Street could
keep the party going interminably – that we had in fact reached the end of
history and stood on the doorstep of a New Age. If that all sounds familiar,
it should. The financial press is immersed in the same sort of rhetoric now.
"This time it's different," we are told. Colin Seymour's infograph
ages like fine wine – as relevant and instructive today as it was when it
first graced these pages fourteen years ago.
(Note: Those who took our advice in 2001 and
converted some of their stock profits to gold coins, not only saved that
portion of their profits, they multiplied their wealth during the major gold
bull market that followed. In the end, as the Telegraph's John Ficenec says
above: "The first rule of investing is capital preservation.")
Pompous
Prognosticators
by Colin Seymour
May 2001 (Rev. August 29, 2001)
Chart locations are
an approximate indication only. For relevance to 2001, scroll down to
"Fast forward"
1. "We will
not have any more crashes in our time." - John Maynard Keynes in 1927
[NB: The authenticity of this one is a little suspect]
2. "I cannot
help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a
fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily
diminish and recede in the near future." - E. H. H. Simmons, President,
New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
"There will be
no interruption of our permanent prosperity." - Myron E. Forbes,
President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
3. "No
Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the
Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the
present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and
contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign
field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual
understanding." - Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928
4. "There may
be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a
crash." - Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist, New York Times, Sept.
5, 1929
5. "Stock
prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel
there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such
as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal
higher within a few months." - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct.
17, 1929
"This crash is
not going to have much effect on business." - Arthur Reynolds, Chairman
of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
"There will be
no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another
comparable decline." - Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable
Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929
"We feel that
fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay
for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices." - Goodbody
and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25,
1929
6. "This is
the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J.
P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a
few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of
the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be
reached again in many years." - R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted
in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Buying of
sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted" - E. A. Pearce market
letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Some pretty
intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic --
which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom." - R. W.
McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929
7. "The
decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is
now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former
great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis
we now have three more years to go before the tailspin." - Stuart Chase
(American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929
"Hysteria has
now disappeared from Wall Street." - The Times of London, November 2,
1929
"The Wall
Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business
depression... For six years American business has been diverting a
substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the
speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is
over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially
unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever
before." - Business Week, November 2, 1929
"...despite
its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate
movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail
prolonged further liquidation..." - Harvard Economic Society (HES),
November 2, 1929
8. "... a
serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring,
with further improvement in the fall." - HES, November 10, 1929
"The end of
the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more
days at most." - Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale
University, November 14, 1929
"In most of
the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no
effect." - Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain),
editorial, November 15, 1929
"Financial
storm definitely passed." - Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill,
November 15, 1929
9. "I see
nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants
pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity
in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929
"I am
convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929
"[1930 will
be] a splendid employment year." - U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's
Forecast, December 1929
10. "For the
immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright." - Irving
Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930
11. "...there
are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..." -
Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930
12. "There is
nothing in the situation to be disturbed about." - Secretary of the
Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930
13. "The
spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business
is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity." - Julius
Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
"... the
outlook continues favorable..." - HES Mar 29, 1930
14. "... the
outlook is favorable..." - HES Apr 19, 1930
15. "While the
crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed
through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly
recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That
danger, too, is safely behind us." - Herbert Hoover, President of the
United States, May 1, 1930
"...by May or
June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and
November should clearly be apparent..." - HES May 17, 1930
"Gentleman,
you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over." - Herbert
Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help
speed the recovery, June 1930
16. "...
irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a
sustained recovery..." - HES June 28, 1930
17. "... the
present depression has about spent its force..." - HES, Aug 30, 1930
18. "We are
now near the end of the declining phase of the depression." - HES Nov
15, 1930
19.
"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible." - HES Oct
31, 1931
20. "All safe
deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may
only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S." - President
F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
. . .
Fast forward...
year 2001
Future of US
economy "very bright"-Fed's Broaddus
"Despite the current slowdown, however, intermediate and longer-term
prospects for the U.S. economy are still very bright"
- Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Alfred Broaddus, in a speech to
the Virginia Housing Coalition, June 14, 2001.
Treasury Secretary
Sees 'Golden Age'
"[the country is] on the edge of a golden age of prosperity... I think
we're not doing badly for the kind of correction that we're in right now...
It's easy to find gloom and doom, but consumers are hanging in there, their
spending rates are still quite good... The contraction occurred ... in the
investment sector, where we had an overexpansion."
- Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, on ABC's "This Week.", Sunday
June 24, 2001.
Economy Likely Up
Over Next Year - Commerce Secretary Don Evans
"Over maybe the next year, I certainly expect it (U.S. economic growth)
to return to those kind of levels of (potential) growth" [between 3.0
percent to 3.5 percent]
- US Commerce Secretary Don Evans to a Washington news conference, Wednesday
August 29, 2001.
Aren't these just a
little disturbing after reading the prognostications from 1927-1933
(As you might
already know, it was not long after we published this piece that the stock
market began to unravel. If I went out of my way, I could supplement his fast
forward from 2001 with similar quotes today. MK)
Reprinted with
permission
by Colin J. Seymour
May 2001 (Rev. August 29, 2001)
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking/
Many of the above
quotations don't have a reference to a source that you could look up in a
library, such as a newspaper from the relevant era, or a learned journal, or
a book complete with ISBN or Library of Congress numbers. We should therefore
always be cautious in accepting the face value of such quotes. Nevertheless,
I am sure most of these things were really said or something very close.
Michael
J. Kosares is the founder of USAGOLD and the author of "The
ABCs of Gold Investing - How To Protect and Build Your Wealth With Gold." He has over forty
years experience in the physical gold business. He is also the editor of Review
& Outlook,
the firm's newsletter which is offered free of charge and specializes
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Disclaimer - Opinions
expressed on the USAGOLD.com website do not constitute an offer to buy or
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