2006 was a year of extreme
volatility in the global money markets. Once again, the biggest stock market
winners were the emerging giants of Brazil, China, India, and Russia, the
so-called BRIC countries. Together, the BRIC account for 50% of the world's
population, yet their rapidly growing economies account for only 13% of
global economic output. The four emerging markets have been star performers,
while European, Japanese and the US markets lag behind their blazing trail.
The global economy produced
around $36.7 trillion in goods and services in 2006, with emerging economies
expanding an average 7% this year, largely as a result of high commodity
prices, and booming demand in China and India, the World Bank said. The pace
of expansion in emerging economies could remain above 7% in 2007, lead by
9.5% growth in China, 8.5% growth in India, and exceeding the 2.6% average
growth rate of high-income countries in Europe, Japan, and the US.
China's Enterprise
H-share Index listed in Hong Kong,
wins the gold medal for market appreciation across the globe in 2006, after
posting a 92% gain so far this year. Most foreign investors interested in
China's companies prefer to trade the H-shares, or mainland companies that
list in Hong Kong or New York, and comply with international accounting and
governance rules.
The H-share index is fueled by
a 29% annualized increase in industrial profits, and a 17% increase in the
Chinese M2 money supply. China's economy is expanding at a 10.4% rate this
year, the fourth straight double-digit annual gain. Chinese traders have
discounted several more years of double-digit gains for the local economy,
with the H-share index eclipsing the psychological 10,000-level on Dec 27th.
China's exports grew 32.8%
from a year earlier in November to a record $96 billion, while annual import
growth stood at 18.3 percent. China is set to run up a $229 billion trade
surplus with the US this year, more than 13% greater than the record 2005
surplus. China passed Mexico as the second- largest US trading partner in the
first 10 months of this year, only behind Canadian-US trade. Nearly 87% of
China's trade surplus is derived from the one-way highway to the US market.
China's stock markets went
ballistic on Dec 27th, when the China Securities Journal revealed that
Beijing plans to set a unified corporate income tax rate of 25%, and
will scrap the decade-old preferential tax rate of 12% for foreign firms. The
draft law under consideration, if approved by the People's Congress, could be
introduced after March 2007. Right now, domestic based companies have the
heavier tax burden, and are at a disadvantage when competing with foreign
based firms.
Chinese banks are currently
subject to a statutory 33% income tax rate on top of a 5% business tax. The
expected corporate tax reform will enhance the earnings of most domestic
banks by between 10% and 20 percent. But Chinese banks are not cheap, and
trade at a sector average of 2.5 times their forecast book value in 2007, a
20% premium to the 2.1 average of global emerging market banks.
China is the emerging
economic super-power of the 21st century, and has moved into fourth place, ahead of the UK economy,
quickly catching up to #3 Germany, but still far behind Japan and the US.
Beijing's foreign currency reserves have soared to one trillion dollars, and
are on course to reach $1.5 trillion by 2010, with cash inflows expected from
foreign trade, foreign direct investment, and interest earned on US and
foreign debt. Where will Beijing direct its future FX reserves?
Capitalization of the Shanghai
Stock Exchange reached 6.3 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange
amounted to 1.7 trillion yuan, making China the largest emerging stock market
in the world. China's capital market equals 40% of its GDP, up from 18% in
2005, and has been soaring in leaps and bounds since June, overtaking South
Korea and India in market value in the past two months.
Chinese stock markets soared
last week, when the US Treasury Department, under Henry Paulson, refused to
label China as a currency manipulator, and instead agreed to steps by Beijing
to let its yuan currency rise in value against the US$ at a snail's pace.
Also, the US Commerce Department rejected a petition on Dec 19th, asking it
to label China's currency policy a subsidy that could have led to the
imposition of tariffs on Chinese-made imports.
News that the US Treasury
would not label China as a currency manipulator led a stampede into the
Chinese H-share Index, rocketing higher to a record 10,213 on Dec 27th, and
up 92% from a year ago. It's not wise to try to pick a top in a frenzied
Asian stampede, but traders should carefully elevate their protective
sell-stops along the way, while Chinese red-chips mimic the US Internet craze
of the late 1990's.
Hong Kong brokers say the
recent market rally is driven by excessive liquidity as plenty of hot money
is waiting to buy initial public offering stocks in Hong Kong and in mainland
China, but the market may need a consolidation in January. The People's Bank
of China is printing huge amounts of yuan in exchange for foreign currency
entering the country from trade surpluses with the US and foreign direct
investment.
The only 3-day pullback in the
Chinese H-share index since early October occurred on November 27-30th, when
Chinese central banker Wu Xialong warned that excessive availability of funds
in the money markets would lead to asset price bubbles. "The basic
situation now is that liquidity is excessive, this is very dangerous. The
central bank's growth targets for the M2 money supply and bank lending have
not been strictly met," Wu was quoted as saying.
China's 7-day repo rate
erupted to as high as 3.9% on Nov 20th, amid fears that the Chinese central
bank was ready to take strong action to drain yuan liquidity. On Oct 27th,
the PBoC had lifted bank reserve requirements by half-point to 9 percent. But
the 7-day repo has since plunged to 2.05% once traders realized that Xialong
was bluffing, and the PBoC wasn't going to drain enough liquidity to bust the
bubble.
Hong Kong Stocks Climb to
Record heights
Hong Kong's benchmark Hang
Seng index hit a record of 19,665 on Dec 27th, hitching a ride to the soaring
Shanghai and Shenzen stock markets. A free trade agreement started in January
2004 between Hong Kong and China, has reinforced China's influence as a key
driver of Hong Kong's economy. One third of China's external trade goes
through Hong Kong, and re-exports account for 92% of Hong Kong total exports.
Its three top export partners are China, Japan and Taiwan.
Hong Kong is Asia's main
trading hub and one of the world's most open economies. Business environment
is favorable to foreign investments: simple legal framework, soft taxation
and above all, almost no customs duties and no non-tariff barriers. Hong Kong
is the second destination for foreign direct investments in Asia, and is the
second largest Asian money market and the world's fifth largest banking
center.
Re-exports thru Hong Kong, are
expected to boost the city's economic growth rate to 5% in 2006, but strength
from the financial sector and the property market could lead to upside
revisions. Hong Kong surged past New York this year and became the world's
second most popular place, after London, for companies to float new stock
listings. Hong Kong's big advantage is that it has a solid legal and
financial system that can handle big initial public offerings, or IPO's.
Shanghai isn't close to being
able to match this city, and that's why a parade of China's biggest banks
decided to launch record-breaking IPO's in Hong Kong this year, led by the
$21.9 billion offering in October by Industrial & Commercial Bank of
China, 1398.HK, the mainland's largest bank with 155 million depositors.
1398.HK overtook HSBC Holdings Plc as the world's third largest bank by
market value after its share value rose to a record $214.2 billion this week.
Hong Kong has raked in $39.57
billion in IPO's, nearly twice as much as last year. London was the world
leader for IPO equity with $48.92 billion, Hong Kong was second and New York
was third with $33.61 billion, which included the January-November period. If
China becomes a large economy rivaling the US over the next 20-years, then
Hong Kong could outpace New York and London. Hong Kong is heavily dependent
on listings by mainland Chinese companies. The firms make up nearly 50% of
the total market capitalization of $1.6 trillion.
Hong Kong Exchanges and
Clearing 0388.HK, which operates the local stock exchange, has tripled in
value this year, riding a big bull run to record profits of HK$2.1 billion
this year, up 50% from 2005. It earned HK$566 million in July-September, up
45% on a year ago and beating a 5% gain in Singapore Exchange's SGXL.SI
earnings for the same period. Since Oct 1st, the Hong Kong Exchange's daily
turnover has averaged nearly HK$40 billion, up almost one-third from the
volume generated in the first nine months of the year.
Hong Kong lists China's
largest Gold miner, Zhaojin Mining
Zhaojin Mining Industry, the
largest gold miner in the eastern Chinese province of Shandong, raised 2.19 billion
Hong Kong dollars, in an IPO in Hong Kong last week. Zhaojin sold 172.8
million new shares at $HK12.68 /share, after individual investors ordered
about 530 times the shares originally offered to them. The portion of the IPO
reserved for fund managers was cut to 50% from 90% to meet the retail demand.
The orders for Chinese gold
miner shares reflected growing demand for protection against a falling US
dollar against the yuan. Standard Bank Group of South Africa and Global
Investment House of Kuwait were among the companies investing in Zhaojin,
which benefited from a surge in gold prices. The Hong Kong shares of Zijin
Mining Group and Lingbao Gold, the only other publicly traded Chinese gold
producers available to international investors, have risen 50% this year.
Zhaojin derived 96% of its
first-half revenue from gold product sales, making gold price fluctuations
the biggest risk for the company. Hedging activities are prohibited in China
and any decline in the gold price could adversely affect earnings. Zhaojin
controls 130.5 tons of gold, at an average mining cost of $264 /ton. Zijin
Mining 2899.HK, owns 375 tons of gold at an average cost of $156/ton, while
Lingbao Gold 3330.HK, controls 105 tons of gold at a cost of $252 /ton.
Chinese gold miners are likely to produce 240 tons this year, with industry
profits exceeding $770 million.
Beijing expands Gold market
to small Chinese investor
The Shanghai Gold Exchange
lowered the size limit for trading in gold bars this week, from one kilogram
($20,000) to 100 grams to expand the market to small private investors. The
SGE is also developing derivatives, including futures, options and investment
funds for gold, according to the Xinhau news agency. Sales of gold bullion
and gold bars account for 10% of gross gold consumption in China.
China will consume a record
350 tons of gold this year amid surging sales of gold bullion, up 17% from
2005. China is the world's third-biggest consumer of gold after India and the
United States. Chinese gold demand in 2005 exceeded 300 tons, 80% of which
went to the jewelry industry. According to the World Gold Council, China's
central bank has 600 tons of gold holdings, equivalent to about 19.3 million
ounces. Gold accounts for less than 1.3% of the central bank's foreign
reserves.
Instead, China's central bank
holds about 70% of its $1 trillion of FX reserves in US bonds, which is
keeping US mortgage rates low and cushioning the deflating US housing bubble.
Beijing must continue to buy US bonds with its export earnings, if it wants
the Bush administration to veto any protectionist legislation that might come
out of the Democratic led US Congress in 2007.
The Bush administration has
overseen the loss of 3.1 million US manufacturing jobs in the past four
years, largely due to a cheap Chinese yuan and Japanese yen against the US
dollar. Meanwhile, massive military spending by the Bush administration in
Afghanistan and Iraq, coupled with tax cuts for Americans, has wiped out the
federal budget surpluses inherited from the Clinton administration and has
increased the fiscal deficit to an all-time high.
US military spending on the invasion
and occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq now totals well over $ 600 billion and
is costing US taxpayers $ 8 billion a month and the bill could rise even
higher if Bush follows through with his plan to increase US troop levels in
Iraq. Therefore, the Bush administration will continue to ask Beijing and
Tokyo to finance the US deficit and hold onto their US bonds, despite the
hollowing out of the US manufacturing sector, which was contracting in
November.
China's central bank issued a
warning on Dec 7th, about the risks of US dollar weakness. "If external
capital stops flowing into the United States, a significant drop in the US
dollar may occur with consumption and investment shrinking, interest rates
rising and financial markets experiencing turbulence, endangering global
financial and economic stability. There could be adjustments in how European
private capital, Asian foreign exchange reserves and oil export proceeds are
invested."
"If the US current
account deficit continues to grow faster than GDP, then the investment value
of US assets may be subjected to doubts and challenges and the willingness of
investors to continue holding and buying US financial products may weaken.
This could cause changes in capital flows, the exchange rates of major
currencies and the value of foreign exchange assets," the PBoC said.
East Asian holders of US
dollars face the risk of a dollar devaluation, said Chinese deputy central
bank governor Wu Xiaoling on Dec 24th. Firstly, long-term US interest rates
are falling, reducing returns on bond investments. Secondly, the exchange
rate of the dollar, which is the major reserve currency, is going lower,
increasing the depreciation risk for east Asian reserve assets," Xialong
concluded.
Looking forward, some of the
big questions are how high can Chinese stocks fly, and what is the biggest
downside risk to investing in the Chinese markets today? Where will China
diversify its FX reserves in 2007? The fascinating answers will be reported
to paid subscribers of the Global Money Trends newsletter in a special
report, to be posted to the www.sirchartsalot.com
website on Thursday, Dec 28th.
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